"Sales by outside sources like home builders and non-NTREIS members were not included in this report." That line sits in the notes of the North Texas Real Estate Information System's September 2026 MLS Summary Report, which the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M produced and dated October 7, 2026. Most published Celina numbers come from data like this. For a city where much of the housing is sold straight from builders, that disclaimer matters more than the headline figure.
In the same report, Celina recorded 10 single-family sales in September 2026, with a median price of $435,000. A year earlier, in September 2025, there were 11 sales and the median was $575,000. Ten sales is a small sample, and it comes from one slice of a market whose other parts are moving differently.
Ten MLS Sales Next to Hundreds of Permits
The city's own development numbers show how big the rest of the market is. The Prosper-Celina Journal reported that Celina issued 287 single-family home permits in June 2026, up 32% from 218 in May. The average permit valuation was $608,702 and the average home size was 3,566 square feet.
Permits and closings are different measures, and the months don't line up. A permit is a home being started. A sale is a finished transaction. Still, putting them side by side shows what the MLS median can't tell you.
| Measure | Period | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Single-family MLS sales in Celina | September 2026 | 10 | NTREIS / Texas A&M |
| MLS median sale price | September 2026 | $435,000 | NTREIS / Texas A&M |
| MLS median price per square foot | September 2026 | $170.13 | NTREIS / Texas A&M |
| Single-family permits issued | June 2026 | 287 | City report via Prosper-Celina Journal |
| Average permit valuation | June 2026 | $608,702 | City report via Prosper-Celina Journal |
| Average permitted home size | June 2026 | 3,566 sq. ft. | City report via Prosper-Celina Journal |
The report does say its data include new and existing homes sold through the MLS, so some builder homes do appear in it. But builder sales made outside the MLS are excluded. The homes Celina is adding fastest, at the larger sizes and higher valuations in the permit data, are the ones least likely to show up in the median.
Why the Median Fell Faster Than the Price per Foot
The September numbers also show how much of the 24% drop comes from which homes happened to sell. From September 2025 to September 2026, Celina's median MLS price fell from $575,000 to $435,000, a drop of about 24%. The median price per square foot fell from $201.61 to $170.13, about 16%.
That gap means part of the decline reflects the mix of homes that closed, not only lower value per foot. With 10 or 11 sales, two or three large homes moving into or out of the month can swing the median a long way. Price per foot is a steadier measure, and it still fell by a meaningful amount. Each month's median is less reliable than either number suggests on its own.
Supply Is Shrinking Because Sellers Are Cutting Prices
Over the same year, listed supply came down. Active listings went from 136 in September 2025 to 119 in September 2026, and months of inventory fell from 10.1 to 6.3. New listings dropped from 41 to 28, and pending sales from 14 to 8.
Usually, falling inventory means a market is firming up. In Celina, the other measures point the other way. Homes that sold in September 2026 took a median 69 days, compared with 64 a year earlier, and sellers got 92.0% of list price. Fewer owners are listing, and the ones who do are discounting to close.
The county numbers put this in context. In September 2026, Collin County had a $447,000 median, 65 days on market, a 93.2% sold-to-list ratio and 4.4 months of inventory. Denton County had a $420,990 median, 67 days, 93.7% and 4.5 months. Celina's 6.3 months is well above both. Its MLS sellers have more supply to compete with than the wider area, even before counting the builder homes the report leaves out.
The Competitor That Isn't in the Data
A Celina resale seller is competing with listings on the MLS and also with builders' sales offices a few streets away. Those builders set prices on different terms.
In October 2026, Coventry Homes is running a DFW sales event advertising rates from 5.49%, or 6.247% APR. One move-in-ready home in Ramble is listed at $549,990, shown as $94,000 off its earlier price. In The Bluffs, a First Texas Homes neighborhood inside Legacy Hills, the builder advertises a promotional rate buydown as low as 3.49% or FlexCash on select inventory. Its own page lists the terms two ways, one at up to $20,000 and another at up to $15,000 or 3.99%, so ask for the current written terms. One quick-move-in home there is listed at $409,950, down from $424,975.
HousingWire reported in August 2026 that DFW builders are using rate buydowns, closing-cost help, inventory discounts, lot-premium reductions, appliance packages and design credits to keep sales moving and clear finished homes. It estimated these incentives can be worth "$20,000, $25,000, or more in economic value." A typical resale owner can't buy down a buyer's rate across a whole community, so the competition shows up in the monthly payment a buyer is quoted, not in the asking price.
This also explains the numbers above. When buyers compare a resale home with a builder's quick-move-in home, they're comparing payments. The resale seller's main lever is price, and Celina's 92.0% sold-to-list ratio in September 2026 suggests many are using it.
The incentive terms above are advertised offers with no stated end dates, and they usually depend on a preferred lender and specific homes. This is general information, not financial or legal advice. Check any rate, credit or loan terms with your own lender before you rely on them.
Where the Market Is Actually Growing
If the MLS shows only a slice, the June permit report shows where the building is happening. These are the subdivisions with the most single-family permits in June 2026:
- Legacy Hills, 66 permits
- Mustang Lakes, Parks at Wilson Creek and Ramble, 22 each
- The Ranch at Uptown, 21
- Cambridge Crossing and Sutton Fields, 19 each
- Cross Creek Meadows, 14
The scale is large. The North Central Texas Council of Governments estimates Celina's population at 78,647 on January 1, 2026, up from 61,834 a year earlier, a 27.2% increase. More is coming. Community Impact reported that Huffines Communities broke ground March 24, 2026, on Serenade Texas, a 468-acre development in Celina that the May 2026 report said was expected to open next year.
For a seller in an established section of Legacy Hills or Mustang Lakes, the nearest competing homes may be new construction in the same master-planned community, sold with incentives that never appear in the MLS median.
Using Celina Numbers When You Price or Offer
Because the median comes from so few sales, decisions should rest on comparisons that hold up month to month.
If you are buying, compare a resale home with a builder home by monthly payment and what's included. Builder offers often come with a preferred lender, apply only to certain homes, and may trade a rate buydown for less on price. A resale seller in a 6.3-month market may agree to concessions of their own. Price per square foot is a steadier yardstick than the median here, and any one month's figure should be read with the sample size in mind.
If you are selling, your real competition includes builder inventory nearby, and the MLS will undercount it. Your pricing should account for the quick-move-in homes a buyer can tour the same afternoon. For a Celina resale home, presentation does real work too. Without a builder's incentive package, condition, staging and photography are the main ways a resale listing sets itself apart from a new model home.
If you are comparing towns, read Celina's September 2026 numbers next to the Collin and Denton County figures. Celina's months of inventory is higher, its sample is much smaller, and its new-home pipeline is larger than its MLS count suggests.
Questions Readers Ask About Celina's Numbers
Does the MLS median include new construction? Partly. The NTREIS report includes new and existing homes sold through the MLS, but it excludes sales made by builders outside the MLS.
When will October 2026 data be out? The September 2026 report is dated October 7, 2026. If the schedule holds, October figures would arrive in early November, and with Celina's small monthly sample they could move noticeably again.
Do builder incentives in Celina have deadlines? The Coventry and First Texas offers advertised in October 2026 show no expiration dates, and terms can differ even on the same builder's page. Get the current terms in writing.
If you're weighing a Celina resale home against a builder's quick-move-in offer, or pricing a home that will compete with new construction down the street, Sandy Mozur can compare the actual monthly payments and packages with you and help you build a listing that holds its own next to a model home. Let's Connect.
